China’s Population is Declining – Too hot, too cold, or just nice for its Economic Development?

On Tuesday, January 17^th, 2023, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released the country’s population data to be 1.41175 billion in 2022, and reported that there was a fall of about 850,000 Chinese citizens for the first time since 1961 as shown by the graph:

Source: Reuters

The Pew Research Center highlighted a few key facts about the drop in China’s population including:

• Total fertility rate has been declining despite the relaxation of its 1980 “1-child policy”, 2016 “2-child policy” and 2021 “3-child policy”.
• Women in China are choosing to marry later and delaying motherhood.
• China has a rapidly aging population with 20% of its population aged sixty and older, and this representation will be growing over the years.
• More Chinese nationals are migrating out of the country per year than into it.

Discussion Questions:  

1. View this ~9 minute CNBC video – “How China’s shrinking population could have a ripple effect on the global economy” – and explain how China’s comparative advantage of low labor cost may be eroded with a shrinking population in the next 10 years.

2. Visit the “Population Pyramid” site, and

• a.) select the country “China” and study the general change in the pyramid structure for the following years:
  • 1980 when the “1-child policy” was implemented,
  • 2016 when the “2-child policy” was in effect,
  • 2021 when the “3-child policy” was encouraged, and
• Relook closely at the following age group during these three periods – under 25 years, between 25 to 64 years, and above 65 years – and discuss how the overall labor market composition will evolve for the country’s male and female.
• Continue to play with this interactive site by selecting various countries and increasing/decreasing the time periods by a year or five years. Share your observations with a classmate or two.

3. Read the February 2022 Policy Brief #130 of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and then

• summarize key takeaways you had about why population growth matters for sustainable development from the following sections:
  • population growth is both a cause and a symptom of slow progress in development,
  • a sustained reduction in fertility opens a window of opportunity for economic growth, and
  • changes in population trends alone will do little to resolve unsustainable patterns of resource use.

4. Self-reflection: View this video – “A world of 8 billion” and share

• a. How old will you be in 2037 when the global population may reach nine billion?
• b. What is your personal projection of your role as a worker in the 2037 labor market:
  • getting higher level education/unemployed,
  • reaching/reached peak employment, OR
  • retiring/planning to retire? Do elaborate.

Sources| National Bureau of Statistics of China: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202301/t20230117_1892094.html; Reuters:https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-shrinks-first-time-since-1961-2023-01-17/; Pew Research Center: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/; CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/03/china-population-how-slower-growth-could-hit-the-global-economy.html; UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Policy Brief #130: undesa_pd_2022_policy_brief_population_growth (002).pdf; Population Pyramid: https://www.populationpyramid.net/; UN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOKY9AyeHL4